Freight rail is a backbone of the U.S. economy, yet system shocks (e.g., pandemic-era volatility, extreme weather, cyber incidents, and labor disruptions) have exposed how failures at a single yard, bridge, or interchange can trigger cascading delays and inventory shortfalls far beyond the rail network. Agencies and railroads lack an integrated map that traces how a disruption at a node (e.g., a Chicago-area yard or an interchange) propagates through upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and alternative rail corridors. This project will develop a data-driven resilience framework that treats the rail network as a critical infrastructure shield and quantifies its built-in economic stabilizer role. The core innovation is to fuse (i) the 2022 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) expanded coverage of auxiliary establishments (warehouses, distribution centers, and logistics facilities) to represent suppliers’ suppliers and customers’ customers, with (ii) the Surface Transportation Board (STB) Waybill Sample to locate interchange points and high consequence junctions where large shares of high-value and essential SCTG commodities transfer between carriers. Using the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF6) as the national flow baseline, we will construct a multilayer freight network (supply-chain nodes + rail terminals/interchanges + corridors) and estimate commodity-specific dependence on critical junctions.
We will introduce a Redundancy Gap Index (RGI) that scores each node/corridor by the availability and quality of feasible alternative routes for priority commodities (e.g., grain, chemicals/hazardous materials, energy inputs). Scenario simulations will test “what-if” outages (yard closures, bridge failures, flooding, or other capacity disruptions) and quantify impacts on travel time, rerouting distance, capacity feasibility, and downstream exposure. The outcome will be an AI-aided decision tool and guidance for rail agencies and state freight planners to prioritize resilience investments that improve reliability and redundancy, supporting freight planning requirements and enabling more transparent, evidence-based justification of rail resilience projects.